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The second method of Backtesting is performed manually and visually by the trader. The trader would take the historical data and scroll back in time on a chart and manually apply the trading strategy as if it was in a real time environment.

The trader would advance the chart bar by bar in order to refrain from seeing price action subsequent to the trade at hand. This eliminates trading in hindsight that is detrimental to an objective backtest.

Manual Backtesting is complicated and difficult. It requires a lot of patience on part of the trader. The major disadvantage of Backtesting as compared to automated testing is the significant potential for human error in executing simulated trades and recording performance results.

Emotions are your enemy in trading. When you do manual Backtesting, these emotions can cause problems for your Backtesting results. The normal range of human emotions and biases that often interfere with actual trading can be a detrimental factor in achieving objective backtest results. Furthermore, it takes a great deal of work and discipline to simulate trades manually over a large data set without straying from the strict rules of the trading strategy.

However, this provides valuable trading experience although simulated but still a valuable trading experience that no automated backtest could possibly provide. Backtesting manually can provide the trader with the real feel for actually trading the strategy.

No matter whether you do Backtesting manually or automatically, Backtesting can save traders a great deal of time and money that might otherwise had been wasted on trading unprofitable strategies. Backtesting whether done manually or automatically can be one of the most important elements of building a solid trading strategy. Backtesting is now an important element of testing a trading system performance.

Any mechanical trading system can be backtested. This leads us to the important question of autotrading. Autotrading is the latest fad especially in forex where the number of major currency pairs is only six and this makes programming autotrading easy. These autotrading systems are popularly known as Expert Advisors or Forex Robots.

The US Stock Market has got more than 50,000 stocks listed with them as compared to the forex market where there are not more than six major currency pairs. This makes programming a stock trading robot a bit complicated. However, during the past decade major breakthrough in computer programming has been made.

Backtesting is one of the most important components of testing an autotrading system. Big institutions like banks, corporations and hedge funds have always been taking benefit of these autotrading systems.

So what type of trading strategies can be backtested and autotraded? Any trading strategy that is rule based and is not discretionary or discrete. These types of strategies are primarily technical in nature, and they must necessarily have rules and criteria that are unambiguous. Backtesting and autotrading are two important components of implementing trading strategies that generally do not rely upon the trader’s judgments or discretion.

In contrast, autotrading actually executes real trades automatically according to a pre – programmed set of instructions that sets trade entries, stop losses, and profit limits. Backtesting allows the trader to determine if a given strategy would have been profitable using past price data, which is an indication of how it might potentially perform in the future.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! This and other unique content ” articles are available with free reprint rights.

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You have to do a lot of research while selecting yours stocks. Here is a very simple strategy that you can use to choose the hottest stocks best for swing trading. When a large financial firm builds an ETF, the first step is always to choose an index of stocks that is expected to outperform the market. The premise of the piggyback strategy is to use the large dollar research of the major financial firms to come up with new and fresh swing trading ideas.

Large financial firms spend millions to choose the index on which they will base their ETF. The ETF is then based on this index of stocks. The price of the ETF then changes as the basket of stocks within the index moves. Why not piggyback on that research and save yourself a few millions? Cool, huh!

Your first step should be to analyze ETFs and make a list of ETFs that have outperformed in the last 3 to 6 months. This will give you an idea where the big money is flowing and which ETFs have buying momentum behind them.

Mutual funds are supposed to be a safe investment. You can also piggyback mutual funds while picking stocks for your swing trading ideas. Now ETF piggyback strategy is still the best keeping in view the fact that only 20% of the mutual funds beat the passive benchmark over the long term. You can ride on the coat tails of fund managers who fall into this 20% category. However, ETFs are better than mutual funds as investment vehicles and in recent years have become highly popular with the investing public so stick with ETFs. After making your list of top 20, narrow it down to the five top performers and choose a few areas worth trading. Choose the best performing ETF in your opinion to begin with. Now you need to analyze the top ten holdings of that ETF.

Etfconnect.com is a great resource for information on ETFs and closed end funds. What makes this trading strategy great is that it often generates fresh ideas for swing traders. With thousands of potential stocks to choose from, the piggyback trading strategy allows you as a swing trader to choose stocks that have a buying momentum behind them.

Now another advantage of this piggyback strategy is that it can identify stocks that may not be household names to the average trader. ETFs can be utilized to find stocks for swing trading ideas that are based outside the US.

The way to do that is to use the ETF piggyback strategy with either single country ETFs or regional ETFs. The single country ETFs invests 100% of their assets in one country. A good example can be the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW), an ETF that invests only in companies headquartered in Mexico.

You can choose industry specific as well as market specific ETFs as well. Country specific ETFs and region specific ETFs have been just used as an example to illustrate how to hedge your risk. Hedging your risk is what a good investment strategy is all about. Instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, you should try to diversify your investment. A regional ETF covers several countries concentrated in a region. The iShares S&P Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) invests in Brazil, Mexico and Chile. So if you want to find international stocks for your swing trading strategy than you should begin by picking the region or the specific country.

Are international stocks safe? You must be thinking why you need to think outside of US Stocks. International stocks also give you the ability to create some hedging strategies in combining US and non US Stocks into a pair trade in addition to volatility that you need as a swing trader. The traders who refuse to consider international stocks only hurt themselves because with the US in the mature business cycle, the real growth and volatility that you need as a swing trader can only come from international stocks.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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Have you ever traded multiple timeframes? No, then let me explain what multiple timeframe trading is. In multiple timeframe trading, a trader first looks at a longer timeframe like a monthly or weekly chart to determine the overall direction of the trend. Multiple time frame trading is a trading method used extensively by forex traders. It involves the use of multiple timeframes.

Professional traders always use multiple timeframes. Multiple timeframe trading means using three or more timeframes in your trading. You as a trader decide to drill down to a shorter timeframe like the daily or 4 hourly chart to look for dips or pullbacks in the trend if you find a decisive long term trend on this timeframe.

First identify the main trend on the long term chart. A minor downward retracement would represent a potentially high probability entry to get in the trend at a reasonably good price in a strong long term uptrend. Finally the trader may drill down to an even shorter timeframe like the 30 minutes or 15 minutes charts to pinpoint and time the exact entry.

Learn to use multiple timeframes in your trading. How do you trade multiple timeframes? Suppose, you are interested in trading multiple timeframes! You identify the retracement in an uptrend on a 4 hourly chart. What you need to do is to wait for a resistance breakout on a 15 minute chart in the direction of the trend before entering into a long position.

Multiple timeframe trading can be very powerful if used correctly. What make multiple timeframe trading so powerful is that it puts the traders on the right side of the market while also identifying the highest probability entries available.

Have you heard of the triple screen trading method? One of the multiple timeframe trading strategies is known as Triple Screen. A triple screen resolves the contradiction between the technical indicators and timeframes. The first screen is the long term charts and strategic decisions on long term charts are made using the trend following indicators.

The second screen is used to make technical decisions about entries and exits using oscillators. The second screen is the intermediate charts. The third screen can be an intermediate chart or a short term chart. The third screen is used to place buy and sell orders.

How do you decide what is intermediate and what is long term? Begin by looking at your favorite chart, the one that you use the most. Call it intermediate chart. In our case, the intermediate time frame is the 4 hour chart. Multiply its length by five to find the long term chart. A factor of 4-6 is more flexible and practical. Our long term chart is a daily chart (4X6=24 hours). Now use trend following indicators on the long term charts.

Staying out of the trade is a legitimate position. Use these trend following indicators like the moving averages, MACD or trendlines in the long term charts to make your strategic decision to go long, short or stay out of the trade.

If the long term chart is bearish or bullish, return to the intermediate chart. Use oscillators to look for entry or exit points in the direction of the long term trend. Set stops and profit targets before you switch to short term charts to fine tune entries and exits.

On the short term chart look for the support/resistance breakout in the direction of the long term trend to pinpoint the trade entry! Use it on your demo account to get familiar with it before you trade live with the triple screen method. Triple screen is a simple but ingenious multiple timeframe approach to forex trading.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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Backtesting any trading strategy allows a trader to simulate its expected performance using historical price data. With Backtesting, traders can actually test their trading strategies and know how well they would have done if executed in the past.

Now an important question that comes to anyone’s mind is what type of a trading strategy can be backtested? Any trading strategy that does not have any ambiguity in its rules can be backtested effectively. Example of a simple trading strategy that can be backtested can be as follows.

When the DMI+ is above DMI- and the MACD histogram has crossed above the zero line, go long when the 5 period moving averages has crossed above the 20 period moving averages.

When the MACD histogram has crossed below the zero line and DMI- is above DMI+, sell short when the 5 period moving averages has crossed below the 20 period moving average.

This one example is just meant to illustrate that any trading strategy having clear cut rules can be backtested with the historical data. However, using the past price data to simulate future results often misleads traders into thinking that their backtested results will also give into similar results in actual real time trading.

There is much difference between live trading performance and the backtested trading performance. Many potential factors can and will make hypothetical performance and actual performance differ significantly. So you should not fall into the trap of thinking that Backtesting may be a perfect method for identifying the most profitable trading strategies.

A trading strategy that may have worked very well over the past three years may work in an entirely different manner for the next three years as the market changes and evolves. One of the most important facts that you should always keep in your mind is that market change considerably overtime.

Technical indicators also need to change with the market. Do you know that often technical indicators that have been giving profitable signals in the past are subsequently unable to replicate their performance in the future? This may frustrate you. But this is exactly what makes trading a challenging endeavor.

Secondly, real time trading and trading with the past historical price data are two different things. A trading strategy in real time may be much different from the way the trading strategy behaves on Backtesting in term of trade execution. These differences can potentially skew the results.

However, Backtesting is still the best available method for evaluating a trading strategy without actually trading it in real time environment. Backtesting can provide a trader with a reasonable expectation of the trading strategy’s potential worth and usefulness.

Backtesting can be done by using two methods. The first one is the automated Backtesting. This is the most popular method. Automated Backtesting entails using a specialized program. The trader inputs the specific rules and criteria for the trading strategy into the Backtesting program.

An entire picture of the past performance is created with the help of that software program. The software automatically applies those rules to the past price data and tallies the past hypothetical profits, losses and other information.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Grab a totally unique version of this article from the Uber Article Directory

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Point and figure trading in many ways is similar to the support and resistance breakout trading on bar or candlestick charts. The main difference is the look and functionality of the price charts themselves!

Point and figure charts represent price in a radically different manner from the more familiar bar and candlestick charts. Many forex charting platforms provide the option of point and figure charts.

Point and figure charts are a pure price action play because these charts generally exclude all other elements like time, volume and open/close other than price. Point and figure trading is based exclusively on price action.

Technical analysis is the study of price action. Technical analysis is used to predict or confirm an uptrend or downtrend or a consolidation in the market. Point and figure charts represent clear evidence of such important technical characteristics like trend, support/resistance and breakouts. Thus a point and figure chart focuses on the behavior of price action which is the most important factor from the technical analysis point of view.

A point and figure chart is constructed with a column of boxes alternately labeled with Xs and Os. An X column means that the price has risen in that column. Conversely, an O column means that the price has declined in that column.

A new column is created going in the opposite direction when a reversal occurs on any column. Only when price moves a significant amount regardless of time will an existing column grow or a new column is created. So there is no time, volume, opens and close on point and figure charts.

Two variables can alter the way the point and figure charts look and act. The first variable is the box size. This is the minimum amount that the price is supposed to move before a new box in the existing column is created.

X is equal to fixed price increase. Each X denotes a rising trend. For example, if a column of Xs has 10 boxes, price would need to move an additional amount equal to the preset box size before another X would be added to the top of the column.

You can use the charting software to do the actual drawing. However, you should understand the concept behind the point and figure chart. Suppose, you are using the point and figure chart. You set the box size on the point and figure chart to be equal to 10 pips on the point and figure charting software.

X column and O column. In an X column, the price would have to move another 10 pips above each X box before another X could be added on top of that X. On the other hand, in an O column, price would have to move 10 pips lower than the each box in O column to add another O box on the bottom of the column.

The second important variable is the reversal amount. How do you decide to add another column to the point and figure chart? It depends on the reversal amount. This is the amount of pips the price needs to reverse before a new column is created.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Grab a totally unique version of this article from the Uber Article Directory

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The most common amount of reversal threshold is three boxes or three points. A new column is only added when a reversal in an existing column exceeds the reversal threshold.

The reversal amount in pips is 30 pips if the box size is set at 10 pips and the reversal amount is set at three boxes. So in case of a rising X column, price would need to turn back by at least 30 pips before a new O column would be added.

By only focusing on the pure price action, a point and figure chart reduces the unrelated noise in the price action. These two variables the box size and the reversal threshold make the point and figure chart so effective at representing only the most major market moves disregarding all minor fluctuations known as noise. The significance of these two variables, the box size and the reversal threshold should be clearly understood.

Since point and figure charts outline support and resistance so well, one of the best trading strategies in most common use with the point and figure charts is breakout trading. The point and figure charts are excellent indicators of both trend and support/resistance.

A double top is a potential bearish reversal signal in bar and candlestick charts. Now you must understand that there is a notable distinction between the bar and candlestick charts and the point and figure charts in the interpretation of double and triple tops and bottoms.

However, a double top is a resistance point where traders should be looking for a bullish break to the upside on the point and figure charts. The same difference holds for the double bottoms as well as triple tops and bottoms.

The main method of trading trendlines and pattern on the point and figure charts is through breakouts like the horizontal support and resistances levels on these charts. Charts patterns like triangles are prevalent as well. Point and figure charts also have their own versions of diagonal trend lines which are drawn at 45 degrees.

The point and figure charts focus exclusively on the price action. Price action is the most important aspect of technical trading. Point and figure charts give a very clear view of the market movements.

It is because of this clarity in viewing and interpreting the price movements that the point and figure charts have withstood the test of time and are still popular with traders today as an increasingly relevant analytical tool for forex traders. Point and figure charts had originated in the’th century.

Point and figure charts excel at representing clear evidence of such important technical characteristics as trend, support/resistance and breakout without the extraneous elements to clutter the picture.

What makes the point and figure charts so special? Other data that is readily available on the bar and candlestick charts like time, period opens/closes are generally excluded on the point and figure charts. This leaves only the uncluttered purity of price action. Some may characterize point and figure trading as based upon pure price action.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Don’t reprint this exact article. Instead, reprint a free unique content version of this same article.

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